By Surekha Ahuja, CA
India’s gold ETFs, the modern demat alternative to locker jewellery, fell up to 16 percent today, tracking gold’s ₹9,000 per 10g drop to ₹1,43,205 on MCX. Driven by Fed hawkishness and US 10-year yields rising 25 basis points, this is not retail panic. It is a stress-test of India’s historic gold investment pivot.
In 2025, ETF holdings reached a record 95 tonnes, equivalent to ₹1.3 lakh crore in AUM, with inflows up 283 percent year-on-year, supported by the 2024 Budget’s 12.5 percent LTCG tax benefit for one-year holdings.
For chartered accountants, family offices, and MSMEs, the shift is decisive. Demat gold now represents 40 percent of demand, while traditional jewellery has declined by 25 percent, reducing current account pressures and GST leakages. RBI’s 879-tonne reserves, accounting for 11.7 percent of forex backing, provide strong institutional endorsement.
Today’s Crash Data
As of February 1, 2:15 PM IST, the January 31 correction erased YTD gains for top ETFs:
| ETF | LTP | Daily Drop | 1-Year Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantum Gold | ₹135.87 | -6.14% | 101% |
| ICICI Pru Gold | ₹140.31 | -6.12% | 99.8% |
| Nippon Gold BeES | ₹135.73 | -6.10% | 99.3% |
| Kotak Gold | ₹136.79 | -6.12% | 99.6% |
| HDFC Gold | ₹140.07 | -6.11% | 98.7% |
The correction is explained by:
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Beta of 1 to spot gold, with no storage drag versus physical gold which incurs 1 percent making charges and 3 percent GST.
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Rupee depreciation to ₹84.2 per USD.
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Liquidity advantage: ETFs settle in T+1, while physical gold takes weeks to liquidate.
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Portfolio impact: 8–10 percent allocation experienced a 2 percent drawdown, while overexposed positions saw 5–7 percent losses.
The data confirms that demat diversification is superior to hoarding, aligned with RBI gold accumulation signaling institutional confidence.
Recommended Strategy: Buy the Dip
For senior investors and family offices:
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Allocate 8–10 percent of your portfolio to a combination of ETFs and Sovereign Gold Bonds in a 60:40 ratio via SIPs starting today.
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Target price: ₹1,60,000 per 10g by Q3 2026, representing a 15–18 percent upside.
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Cap exposure at 12 percent if USDINR exceeds 86.
Rationale:
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Tax advantage: ETFs taxed at 12.5 percent LTCG for holdings above one year versus 20 percent for physical gold held more than three years.
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Inflation hedge: CPI at 7.2 percent, positioning ETFs for an 18–22 percent CAGR through 2028.
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Outperformance: Fixed deposits yield 6.5 percent post-tax; Nifty returned 10.5 percent in 2025.
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Compliance benefits: Peer-review ready, TDS and GST-efficient, ensures succession liquidity.
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SGB bonus: 2.5 percent coupon with tax-free maturity over eight years.
Asset Comparison
| Asset | 1-Year Return | Tax | Liquidity | CAD Impact | Advisory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold ETFs | 99–101% | 12.5% >1yr | T+1 | High | Core Buy |
| Physical Gold | 76% | 20% >3yr | Weeks | High | Fade |
| Sovereign Gold Bonds | 102% + 2.5% | Tax-free | Annual | Zero | Defensive Pair |
2026 Outlook
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Total demand expected at 600–700 tonnes, with jewellery continuing to decline.
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Customs duties remain at 6 percent, supporting import protection.
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Scrap prices fell 19 percent in 2025, boosting ETF inflows.
Conclusion: India is experiencing a gold renaissance. The move from lockers to demat provides liquidity, tax efficiency, and institutional alignment.
Rebalance your portfolio today. Delaying may mean missed opportunity.
