By CA Surekha S Ahuja
Introduction: When “Global” Stops Being Safe
The era of frictionless globalization has quietly—but decisively—ended.
As we enter 2026, global growth projections hover around a modest 3.1%, yet this number conceals a far more complex truth: capital, supply chains, currencies, and even sovereign stability are now being reshaped not by economic cycles alone, but by geopolitical fracture, militarized trade, and asymmetric risk.
For Indian family businesses, this marks a structural inflection point.
Boardroom discussions can no longer remain confined to EBITDA, valuation multiples, or expansion geography. Today, geopolitics has become a balance-sheet variable. Missile ranges in the Middle East, sanctions regimes in Eurasia, and tariff walls in the Atlantic now directly influence input costs, forex exposure, capital allocation, and—most critically—legacy preservation.
The “war economy” is no longer a distant macro headline. It is a silent partner in every serious business decision.
Geopolitical Reality of 2026: Three Fronts, One Balance Sheet
To understand why Indian family businesses must now think in terms of fortresses rather than footprints, we must recognize the three risk vectors shaping 2026.
The Energy Trigger: Oil as a Geopolitical Weapon
Escalating tensions in the Middle East—particularly around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz—have reintroduced oil as a geopolitical choke point. A credible spike toward USD 100 per barrel is no longer alarmist; it is mathematically plausible.
For Indian businesses, this is not merely a fuel cost issue. It is:
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A logistics inflation shock
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A raw-material cost escalator
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A margin compression event
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A downstream consumer demand disruptor
Energy volatility now transmits instantly across manufacturing, transportation, FMCG, and export pricing. In such an environment, cost predictability itself becomes a strategic advantage.
The Eurasian Deadlock: Volatility Without Resolution
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has transitioned into a prolonged war of attrition, increasingly targeting critical infrastructure and commodity corridors.
Its consequences for Indian family enterprises are indirect yet severe:
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Persistent volatility in fertilizers, metals, and energy derivatives
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Pricing instability in construction, infrastructure, and agri-business
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Disrupted long-term procurement contracts
The key risk here is not shortage—but unforecastable pricing, which erodes planning discipline and working-capital efficiency.
The South Asia Risk Premium: Capital Has a Memory
Closer home, renewed friction on India’s borders introduces a subtler but powerful variable: sovereign risk perception.
Foreign institutional capital is hypersensitive to regional instability. Even limited escalation can trigger:
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Sudden capital outflows
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Rupee depreciation
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Equity market volatility
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Higher cost of external commercial borrowing
Family businesses must recognize that currency risk is no longer cyclical—it is geopolitical.
Strategic Shift I: The “Homecoming” of Capital
For over a decade, sophisticated family capital pursued global diversification—London real estate, US equities, offshore structures. That logic is now being reversed.
2026 marks the rise of strategic repatriation.
With Europe facing stagnation and proximity to conflict, and the US struggling with structurally sticky inflation (3–4%), India increasingly represents a relative safe haven—not because it is risk-free, but because its risks are domestic, democratic, and governable.
The Rise of “Reverse Flipping”
This is no longer limited to startups. Family offices are reassessing offshore allocations with a sharper lens:
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Why accept 1–2% real yields in fragile geographies
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When Indian private credit, infrastructure, and operating businesses offer double-digit risk-adjusted returns
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Backed by demographic growth and political continuity
The Repatriation Matrix: A Disciplined Approach
1. Vulnerable Real Estate Holdings
Low-yield properties in Eastern Europe or geopolitically sensitive regions now carry hidden costs—insurance premiums, exit illiquidity, and physical risk. In many cases, liquidation and repatriation under the automatic route is a capital preservation move, not a retreat.
2. Strategic Offshore Assets
Capital invested in strategic technology, intellectual property, or “India+1” manufacturing hubs (Vietnam, Mexico) should be retained. These assets function as trade-barrier hedges, not speculative bets.
3. Idle Dollar Liquidity
The US dollar remains a hedge against INR volatility. Operational liquidity may be maintained in safe jurisdictions (e.g., Singapore), but passive capital must be redeployed into India’s growth engines rather than lying fallow abroad.
Strategic Shift II: Regulatory Agility — The FEMA Opportunity
Regulation is often seen as constraint. In 2026, it is also an instrument of risk management.
Recognizing global volatility, the RBI introduced a crucial amendment in 2025 allowing exporters to retain foreign currency proceeds in IFSC (GIFT City) accounts for up to 90 days (earlier: 30 days).
Why This Matters
This is not a procedural tweak—it is a forex strategy tool.
Instead of mechanically converting every export dollar into INR, businesses can now:
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Match export inflows against import outflows
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Reduce conversion costs and timing risk
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Hedge naturally against short-term currency shocks
In a world where the rupee reacts instantly to geopolitical headlines, cash-flow-aligned forex management becomes a competitive edge.
Strategic Shift III: Supply Chain Sovereignty
In 2026, diversification no longer means buying global indices.
It means owning control over your supply chain.
If a business relies on a single critical input from a conflict-prone region, it is effectively shorting its own continuity.
The New Imperative: Shadow Supply Chains
Forward-thinking family enterprises are reallocating capital to:
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Build backup vendor ecosystems
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Invest in domestic MSMEs
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Establish alternate sourcing in Mexico, Vietnam, or India
This is not inefficiency. It is strategic redundancy.
Western buyers are increasingly mandating “friend-shoring”—requiring 50% or more value addition outside adversarial jurisdictions. Compliance with this is no longer optional; it is a market-access prerequisite.
The Family Behind the Business: Personal Wealth Fortification
A fortress business without a fortified family balance sheet is incomplete.
For business families, personal wealth strategy in 2026 must be conservative, liquid, and intentionally asymmetric.
Core Principles
Liquidity Supremacy
Maintain at least 12 months of lifestyle liquidity, independent of business working capital. In crises, cash disappears first where it is assumed to be “available”.
The Barbell Portfolio
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10–15% in Gold as a hedge against conflict and currency debasement
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Defensive equities (pharma, FMCG) that preserve value in slowdowns
Interest-Rate Discipline
In a world of uneven rate movements, fixed-rate liabilities offer certainty. Floating-rate optimism is a dangerous gamble in an inflation-anchored war economy.
Conclusion: Safety Is No Longer Global — It Is Strategic
In 2026, the greatest risk facing Indian family businesses is not geopolitics.
It is inertia.
The world has structurally changed. Capital flows are reversing. Supply chains are being weaponized. Regulation is evolving into strategy. Safety is no longer found by being everywhere—but by being deliberate, liquid, and anchored.
The fortress of wealth today is built not on unchecked expansion, but on strategic consolidation, intelligent repatriation, and sovereign-aligned resilience.
Stay liquid. Stay hedged. Stay adaptive.
And for the first time in many years, when family businesses ask where safety truly lies—the answer, quite simply, may be:
Home.




