By CA Surekha S Ahuja
“Some deals change trade. This deal changes how trade is earned.”
The India–EU Free Trade Agreement of 2026 is not just a commercial treaty.
It is a structural rewrite of India’s growth imperative — transforming the rules of engagement for exporters, investors, tax policy, and compliance frameworks.
This is why it truly deserves the title:
The Mother of All Deals.
A Shift from Market Access to Market Eligibility
India already traded with the European Union. The fundamental transformation in this agreement is not who India can sell to — but under what conditions those sales will succeed.
For the first time, India has entered a trade framework where:
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Market access is conditional, not automatic
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Compliance is permanent, not transitional
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Institutional capability determines competitiveness
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Informality loses its economic edge
This agreement is not liberalisation in the conventional sense — it is institutional integration.
From Tariff Reduction to Rule Adoption
Tariffs are visible. Rules are decisive.
Under the FTA, India accepts European frameworks for:
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Carbon pricing and reporting (CBAM)
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Sustainability and traceability
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Technical standards and product compliance
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Service and IP linkage in cross-border trade
In practical terms:
| Old Model | New Model |
|---|---|
| Trade driven by price | Trade driven by credibility |
| Tariff preference | Standard & compliance preference |
| Cost arbitrage | Institutional performance |
Access to the EU market no longer depends primarily on duty elimination — it depends on institutional discipline.
Growth Is Selective, Not Universal
This is the first FTA where the Government has effectively signalled which parts of India’s economy will benefit most. Growth under this pact will be concentrated where:
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Industrial ecosystems already exist
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Compliance systems are scalable
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Value-added and documented output is trackable
States with established manufacturing bases are poised to accelerate exports.
Clusters with informal production face pressure to formalise or fade away.
This is not bias.
It is economic selection.
Compliance as a Core Economic Input
Access to EU markets embeds permanent compliance costs:
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Mandatory carbon and energy audits
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ESG disclosures and reporting systems
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Stringent traceability and quality certification
These costs are not proportional to scale — they are fixed inputs.
Implications:
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Large, structured exporters absorb these costs
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Small, informal exporters confront margin compression
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Export activity consolidates around compliant entities
This agreement does not punish MSMEs — it filters them.
Taxation Shifts from the Border to the Balance Sheet
As customs tariffs fall, the tax system’s role changes fundamentally.
Under the FTA:
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GST refund velocity becomes a business variable
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Administrative delays can negate duty benefits
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Export profitability becomes sensitive to domestic processes
Key Insight:
If tax administration remains slow or unpredictable, tariff relief becomes irrelevant.
Section 195 Withholding — A New Trade Cost
EU trade is service-embedded:
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Design
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Engineering
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Technology
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Licensing
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Intellectual property
Cross-border services and royalty payments will increase sharply.
Without procedural reform:
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Excess withholding becomes the default
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Treaty relief becomes dispute exposure
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Cash gets locked in compliance friction
In a rules-based trade environment, withholding inefficiency is economic inefficiency.
Family Businesses at an Institutional Crossroads
EU capital is not relationship-driven — it is governance-driven.
Family enterprises structured around:
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Informal ownership
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Ad-hoc valuations
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Unclear succession
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Weak documentation
will struggle under EU due diligence standards.
This agreement raises the bar:
Internationalisation now mandates institutionalisation.
Short-Term Trade Deficit — A Structural Phase, Not a Failure
In the initial years:
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Imports of EU machinery and high-value inputs will rise faster than exports
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Trade deficits may widen temporarily
This is not a flaw — it is the investment phase of the agreement.
Productivity gains and export scale will follow, but only for firms that can execute under the new regime.
Budget 2026 — The Real Execution Framework
The FTA creates opportunity.
Budget 2026 decides who can genuinely benefit from it.
This Budget must enable:
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Time-bound GST refunds
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Section 195 procedural clarity
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CBAM compliance as export infrastructure
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FEMA predictability for valuation and capital flows
Future budgets will no longer be mere fiscal roadmaps — they will be FTA execution blueprints.
Closing: Why This Deal Will Define India’s Economic Trajectory
The India–EU Free Trade Agreement does not promise growth.
It conditions growth.
Prepared firms will scale.
Efficient states will accelerate.
Informal structures will exit.
Compliance will become a competitive lever.
This agreement will not expand India’s economy by default.
It will decide who participates in India’s global economic expansion.
That is why it is not just a deal — it is transformational.





